9622056 Nikolaidis This award provides funds for an investigation into the relative merits of probability based design and fuzzy-set based design. The study will use three means for probing the differences and similarities of the two approaches. First, an examination of the underlying theories of probability analysis and fuzzy-set analysis will seek to identify fundamental differences. Second, numerical experiments will seek to provide insight into the different design strategies embodied in the two approaches. Finally, laboratory experiments will show how well designs obtained using the two approaches perform when built. It is expected that the amount of information on uncertainties available to the designer has a major effect on the utility of the two approaches. Therefore the study will be conducted for different levels of available information ranging from complete statistical knowledge to very vague measures of the uncertainties. The study will be reviewed periodically by experts in the two fields of probabilistic design and fuzzy-set design to help assure quality control. If successful this study will lead to better understanding of the differences and similarities between probabilistic design and fuzzy-set design. Furthermore, it is expected that the study will identify conditions under which one approach is more appropriate than the other, so as to help designers select one method over the other depending on the amount of knowledge they have on the uncertainties. Finally, it is expected that the study will help diffuse the intense rivalry between proponents of the two methods. The end result should be an improvement in the ability of designers to produce designs that take explicitly into account uncertainty.
