This action funds an NSF Postdoctoral Research Fellowship for FY 2008. The fellowship supports a research and training plan entitled "Using the Past to Predict the Future: A Computational Approach to Broad-scale Patterns of Avian Island Biodiversity" for Alison G. Boyer. The host institution for this research is University of California, San Diego, and the sponsoring scientist is Dr. Walter Jetz.
Study of island ecosystems is a cornerstone of ecological research. Recent discoveries of fossil birds on islands across the Pacific reveal the ancient extinction of up to 50% of bird species on some islands. The extinction event is linked to the arrival of Polynesian colonists, and human activities continue to threaten island bird species today. Fossil data enable reconstruction of the bird diversity of the Pacific before human impacts and could potentially change our understanding of diversity and community structure of Pacific island ecosystems. This research is quantifying patterns in the extinction, diversity, and community structure of island birds by creating the body of recently published fossil data from Pacific islands and comparing this data with decision-tree models.
The training goals include developing new skills in decision tree and spatial modeling and relational databases, in addition to advancing the emerging field of conservation paleobiology by applying the recent fossil record to conservation of modern species through collaboration with local and international conservation scientists. Broader impacts include improving understanding of living and non-living organisms' effects on biodiversity, identifying the causes and contexts of anthropogenic extinction, and establishing an interdisciplinary collaborative network. In addition, knowledge gained in this research will directly aid in prioritizing international efforts to ease the effects of human impacts and global change on biodiversity.
