Integrating metabolic theory and population models to predict the consequences of warming on marine invertebrates
Managing the effects of climate change is a pressing concern, but ecological predictions are still lacking. The idiosyncratic nature of species-specific responses to multiple stressors contributes to the difficulties associated with predicting population responses to global change. The metabolic theory of ecology is a starting point for understanding population responses to temperature, against which other components of climate change may later be evaluated. However, the application of metabolic theory to population-level responses is in its infancy. In particular, the effects of warming on critical life stages have not been considered in the context of entire life cycles. This project will apply metabolic theory to size-structured population models to forecast the effects of warming on the demographics of marine invertebrates.
The integration of theory and modeling will aid in identifying potential outcomes of climate change beyond the lifespans of individual scientists and provide a set of testable predictions for physiological experiments in the context of entire life cycles. Case studies will focus on ecologically and commercially important species (e.g., urchins, abalone) in temperate marine communities worldwide. Collaborations with resource managers and First Nations partners in British Columbia will raise awareness about climate change and local impacts to kelp forests and other temperate nearshore habitats.
