This project develops and tests models of seed dispersal by wind and applies those models to investigate the importance of seed dispersal in tropical forests. Seed dispersal is recognized as a very important ecological process, and yet ecologists still know very little about seed dispersal patterns and their particular influences in plant communities. This research builds on recent advances in atmospheric modeling and genetic techniques, using an interdisciplinary team with a history of successful collaboration to develop, test and apply the next generation of atmospheric models of seed dispersal by wind. The mechanistic seed dispersal models developed here will be the first to incorporate the effects of spatial heterogeneity and complex topography, and will cover an unprecedented range of spatial and temporal scales. The study site, Barro Colorado Island in Panama, offers a unique combination of a highly diverse group of wind-dispersed plant species and extensive relevant long-term and large-scale datasets. In combination, this makes possible an unprecedented investigation of the importance of seed dispersal, including examination of its importance in determining individual species abundances and of its contribution to the maintenance of species diversity. The models developed as part of this research will be broadly applicable to wind-dispersed species worldwide, and will constitute an important new tool for conservation and management. These models will be useful, for example, for predicting invasion rates of exotic species, responses to range shifts due to climate change, and the effects of habitat fragmentation. All results, including these models, will be made publicly available.
