Understanding the distribution of species and patterns of biodiversity across the earth is a central problem in ecology and biogeography. Key to this problem is understanding how present, past and future climate may drive biological patterns spatially and temporally. This project will focus on developing Bayesian hierarchical, statistical models that integrate pattern and process across many levels, from populations of organisms to species to regional climates. The world is in an extraordinary phase of climate change that will drive potentially dramatic changes in species distribution patterns. Many scientists have pointed to a looming conservation crisis. Southern Africa provides a case study where this is especially true. Yet the tools currently at hand are inadequate for providing sufficient predictive power (and uncertainties thereof) with sufficient spatial resolution to understand, plan for and address the crisis. This study will concentrate on predicting and explaining plant species distributions (especially for the Proteaceae family) in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, using data on plant distributions and performances to inform the downscaling of climate at a regional level. It will use the climate data to learn how species respond to changing climate. The CFR is a region with exceptionally high diversity and levels of geographic differentiation and with detailed climate and species distribution records. Novel statistical models will be developed to predict and explain species abundances and population-level performances, and refine forecasts for recent past and near future climates. The insight gained on the processes specific to this system, as well as the models and tools we develop, will be broadly applicable to understanding other systems elsewhere in the world. This project provides a unique opportunity for trans-disciplinary training of students and post-doctoral associates in ecology, climatology, statistics, and modeling. It will developed an active recruiting and retention program for underserved students, and will cultivate a K-12 educational outreach program, with US-South African linkages, that focuses on issues of biodiversity and climate change.
