Ongoing changes in the global climate could severely alter the well-known annual cycle of the monarch butterfly. Data from a citizen-science monitoring program was used to predict a northward summer range shift. This will necessitate a longer and faster migration, and monarchs could lose much of their breeding range. This project will investigate the effects of heat stress on monarch butterflies and assess their ability to track changes in habitat location. Larvae will be reared in unfavorable conditions and the migratory status of surviving adults will be determined. There is evidence that monarchs in Texas are changing their migratory patterns. Field, lab, and transplant studies will determine if monarchs are responding to current environmental changes, such as the introduction of non-native milkweed or an already changing climate. This indicates a level of plasticity in their migratory behavior that could allow them to cope with future climate change.
The proposed research relies on data gathered through the Monarch Larva Monitoring Project, a program created to involve citizens in research to better understand monarch biology. Even for a species as well-studied as the monarch, more information is necessary for adequate protection from a threat as large as climate change. Monarchs are a well-known and almost iconic species among the public and as such, this study could serve as an example of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on species distributions.
