When a new infectious disease emerges, biomedical scientists mobilize to identify the key species (pathogen, wildlife reservoir, vector) or climatic factors responsible, and to produce a sketch of environmental sources of risk. These sketches are insufficient at best and inaccurate at worst, potentially leading to inadequate mitigation of disease risk. For example, attempts to reduce Lyme disease (LD) incidence by targeting white-tailed deer and white-footed mice have failed because several other important hosts for ticks can compensate for reductions in deer and mouse populations. The major objective of the proposed research is to identify the causes of limited success, using LD as a case study.
The proposed research will provide a synthesis of knowledge about LD to: (1) describe the predominant initial approach to emerging diseases; (2) illustrate the shortcomings of such an approach in predicting risk of human exposure or prescribing effective control of that risk; and (3) explore the broader ecological context of disease risk. LD is arguably the best-studied vector-borne zoonotic disease in the world and serves as a model for many other diseases. The synthesis will be used to describe a more holistic approach to the ecology of emerging infectious diseases that is expected to provide a more thorough, sound, and rapid understanding of risk leading to more effective mitigation.
