The future trajectories of natural ecosystems and consequences for human societies will vary greatly depending on the extent to which relatively gradual changes in average climate are accompanied by episodic instances of disturbance or short-term extremes in climate that may, in turn, trigger abrupt shifts in vegetation. For example, under a gradually changing climate, abrupt shifts in species abundances and assemblages may be triggered by drought, fire, or human activity. Our ability to anticipate future changes would benefit from insights into the details of previous ecological transitions, particularly those that have been abrupt. This project involves three collaborating research groups employing complementary approaches to reconstruct past climate-ecosystem dynamics. High-resolution analyses of lake-sediment records from southern New England will reveal past changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance for the last 15,000 years, thus improving our knowledge of the mechanisms by which climate change interacts with environmental extremes and disturbance to control the pace and patterns of ecological change.
The results of this work will inform our understanding of fundamental ecological dynamics and provide insights into the fine-scale, short-term interactions of vegetation, disturbance, and climate. The project will yield samples, data, and analyses that will be permanently archived and accessible in raw, processed, and synthesized formats through a web-based information management system, numerous publications, and international symposia. Public outreach efforts will involve curriculum development for model courses, undergraduate film and journalism projects, and collaborations with scientific museums. The interdisciplinary and multi-institutional research environment will provide training for graduate students and mentoring for undergraduates.
