Many species are predicted to shift their ranges over the coming decades in response to changing climate. While much is understood about the climatic controls on species' ranges, little is known about the temporal, ecological, or genetic factors that influence range shifts. This project will examine the expansion of ponderosa pine into the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to gain an understanding of these factors. This study combines tree-ring analysis and molecular genetic tools to assess species migration and establishment and reveal the patterns of population growth over the landscape over a roughly 500 year time span. Project data will be used to evaluate the ecological and genetic factors that influence colonization, range expansion, and long-term viability of populations at their range margins.
The results of this project provide information on how climate change may influence plant migrations and how these migrations in turn may alter ecosystem structure and function at local to regional scales. This project will foster dialogue between the natural resource management and academic communities through organization of a workshop to communicate findings. A high school student will gain research experience and interdisciplinary training through participation in the project.
