Optimizing the chances of survival of rare or endangered plants is a fundamental concern of plant conservation biologists. Part of this effort involves assessing the current "health" of populations and predicting chances of their long-term survival. This work will compare two methods of assessing population "health" and the likelihood of long-term survival for the royal catch-fly (Silene regia), a prairie relict. The investigators will determine levels of genetic variation in populations of various size, isolation, and management using biochemical techniques. It is generally held that populations high in genetic variation are better buffered against environmental perturbations in the short-term and that genetic variation provides a pool of resources that can be drawn from for long-term adaption and evolutionary change. However, the importance of genetic variation to the persistence of plant populations has rarely been demonstrated with field studies. The investigators will compare data from genetic studies with demographic data of actual survival, seed production, and seedling establishment of plants in the same sites. Computer modeling will be used to project, based on actual values recorded over the relatively short term of the study, into the future to estimate which populations are most likely to persist.
