Foster Hurricanes have been one o the most important natural disturbance affecting coastal areas from northern South America through the Caribbean to eastern North America. They regulate the hydrological, energy, and nutrient regimes of forest and coastal ecosystems, and act as a determinant of landscape-level patterning of temperate and tropical forests. Recent studies suggest that human-induced global warming may lead to increases in the frequency, intensity, and latitudinal extent of hurricanes. If this happens, the impacts on human life and property and on coastal ecosystems could be dramatic. To improve our understanding of the ecological impacts of hurricanes, we have developed an integrative approach. A simple meteorological model (HURRECON) reconstructs wind conditions during a hurricane, a simple topographic exposure model (EXPOS) identifies areas exposed to peak winds on a landscape scale, and actual forest damage is assessed through aerial photographs, archival records, and field measurements. This approach has been validated in detailed studies of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico and the 1938 New England Hurricane. We will use this approach to reconstruct characteristics of hurricanes (1600 to present) that have affected Puerto Rico and New England. These two regions represent tropical and temperate forests subject to recurring hurricanes, and are contrasts in climate, topography, and vegetation. At the continental scale w will examine the differences between tropical and temperate hurricanes and their impacts on forest. At the regional scale we will define long-term coastal to inland gradients in hurricane frequency and intensity. At the landscape scale we will analyze spatial patterns of exposure to hurricane winds created by local topography at the Luquillo and Harvard Forest LTER sites. Regional results will be applicable to other research sites throughout Puerto Rico and New England. The proposed study represents the first effort to develop a comprehensive unde rstanding of the disturbance regime imposed in forest ecosystems by hurricanes. The project will also yield general models of hurricane meteorology and landscape exposure that will be applicable to other regions, and may be used to explore the potential impacts of increased hurricane activity under conditions of global change.
