9322576 Belovsky In this Conservation and Restoration Biology research, the PI will examine Minimum Viable Population (MVP) concepts experimentally to evaluate quantitatively their validity and the precision of predictions from particular theoretical formulations. experimental studies will use laboratory populations of the Great Basin brine shrimp (Artemia franciscana) to examine MVP processes in a hierarchical design. First, the persistence of isolated populations will be examined with only demographic stochasticity operating and then with environmental stochasticity added. Second, metapopulation dynamics will be examined: 1) using a large number of constituent populations, whose dynamics are uncorrelated, providing migrants (deterministic dynamics), (2) then using a limited number of constituent populations, whose dynamics are uncorrelated, providing migrants (stochastic dynamics), and 3) finally using autocorrelation operating between the dynamics of the constituent populations. This simple experimental system permits comparison of the observed mean persistence times and their probability distributions with predictions from MVP models in the literature. Furthermore, Artemia occurs naturally in small hypersaline springs in the Great Basin. These simple ecosystems without competitors and predators for Artemia permit extrapolation of laboratory results to a natural system. If the laboratory observations agree with the MVP model predictions and the presence/absence of Artemia in these small habitats is in agreement with laboratory predictions, the validity of existing MVP formulations would be indicated, strengthening their value for conservation management. %%% The idea that there must be a minimum number of individuals in a population to ensure its persistence for a given time period with a given probability (Minimum Viable Population, MVP) is one of the cornerstone concepts of conservation biology and a major reason for Population Viability Analysis in conservation management and policy. Existing examinations of MVP concepts have either relied on theoretical considerations or biogeographical correlations with few experimental tests. Furthermore, most of the concepts to validate MVP have been qualitative rather than quantitative. Validating MVP concepts in a quantitative fashion is critical if their use is to be justified in the contentious area of conservation management and policy, as well as in answering more basic scientific issues regarding the forces controlling biodiversity in nature. ***
