Attempts to duplicate expert problem solving behavior and concomitantly to deal with uncertain and incomplete information and knowledge have focused special attention on the mathematics of uncertain reasoning. Techniques for treating the uncertainties which arise in expert systems have come from a spectrum of mathematical theories ranging from classical probability to heuristic rules based on empirical observations of expert behavior. This project will support an NSF-CBMS Regional Research Conference in the Mathematical Sciences on Uncertain Reasoning to be held June 1-5, 1992 at the University of North Dakota at Grand Forks. Professor Glenn Shafer of the University of Kansas will be the principal lecturer. To stimulate interest and activity in mathematical research, the National Science Foundation each year supports a number of NSF-CBMS Regional Research Conferences in the Mathematical Sciences. Each five-day conference features a distinguished lecturer who delivers ten lectures on a topic of important current research in one sharply focused area of the mathematical sciences. The lecturer subsequently prepares an expository monograph based upon these lectures, which is normally published by the American Mathematical Society or the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, or jointly by the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. Certain features differentiate these conferences from typical research conferences. These are: (1) Focus on a single important and timely area of research by a leading practitioner, (2) Continued effect and local stimulation through regional emphasis, (3) Panel review for quality, breadth, and timeliness, and (4) Published monographs for a wider audience.
