Proposal: DMS 95-05192 PI: Giovanni Parmigiani Institution: Duke University Title: WORKSHOP ON MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL ROBUSTNESS PROJECT ABSTRACT In recent years, advances in statistical methodology and computing have made available powerful modeling tools in a variety of areas. Along with the added modeling flexibility, increasing attention is being directed to assessing the consequences of modeling assumptions on results. Debates on the effect of modeling assumptions on crucial scientific and pmlicy prediction, such as global warming and the health impact of toxic waste, have reached the mass media. This award supports travel to a workshop in Bath, UK, that will discuss these issues. Travel to a workshop on model uncertainty and model robustness---the quantitative exploration of the mapping from assumptions to conclusions will be supported. The workshop will blend methodology and case studies. The workshop has the potential to significantly advance this field of statistical research and encourage dissemination of an important class of modeling techniques to practitioners. The goals of the workshop are: a) to help eliciting current issues and methods from a host of different application areas and disciplines; b) to favor wider utilization of worthy practical approaches and solutions developed in specific fields; c) to advance understanding of relative merits of existing tools ad approaches, and d) to point to directions for future methodological developments. The workshop is international, which is a reflection on the composition of the research community in this area. Participants supported with the award represents a balance between senior and junior researchers as well as women and minorities.
