Hydrologic science has evolved to embrace scientists from a diverse range of disciplines, driven by the many challenging problems that now exist at the interface of various science disciplines,. Tremendous strides have been made but the enormous complexity of the problems continues to pose challenges for predicting interactions among the physical, biological, biogeochemical, and human subsystems that shape the behavior of hydrologic systems, especially in the context of human-induced changes to climate and land use. Predictions focused on individual components or unchanging landscapes or climate are no longer deemed satisfactory. The changing environment therefore provides both a challenge and an opportunity for developing sound foundations for improving the predictability of water cycle dynamics through an approach based on a synthesis of observations, analysis methods, concepts and theories across a broad range of scientific fields, including hydrology, ecology, geomorphology, geochemistry, and the social sciences, in a manner sufficient to meet the water challenges we now face and will face in the future. The aim of this project is to conduct a range of synthesis activities that will produce transformational outcomes in the critical research area of "improving predictability of water cycle dynamics in a changing environment," which will serve as an effective model of synthesis within the hydrological community. This objective will be achieved by through the formation of a targeted synthesis team and associated synthesis activity groups, and through these groups, carrying out focused research activities to generate outcomes that will serve as national prototypes of the power of synthesis for investigating and solving complex hydrologic problems. The synthesis activities will consist of a mix of workshops, small-group research activities, combined with the use of cyber-infrastructure. To undertake this project, a research consortium has been formed consisting of several established research centers as partners (NCED, HWR/SAHRA, NCAR, NCEAS, IRI, NCSA) with UIUC acting as the hub. Membership of the synthesis team and synthesis activity groups will be open to partner organizations as well as the general scientific community.
Human activity in today’s world is beginning to rival geologic-scale forces. The main challenge to predictions in such a changing environment involves understanding interacting earth system processes that have led to the structure and function of existing hydrologic systems, and to use this understanding to predict how they will evolve in the context of rapid human-induced changes. Increasingly predictions must include the implications of human behavior, understanding legacy effects of past behavior, and the emergent behavior of human-impacted hydrological systems. Addressing such prediction problems generation of new understanding and new prediction approaches that build on a synthesis of knowledge and concepts from diverse disciplines that impinge on the dynamics of such interacting subsystems. This project was aimed at exploring alternative approaches to bring about such inter-disciplinary synthesis. In this project we experimented with several approaches and strategies to achieve these objectives: (1) detailed projects addressing traditional questions in the areas of catchment ecohydrology and biogeochemistry, where we leveraged graduate student time and enthusiasm through extended summer projects, and (2) community leadership in terms of developing a forward-thinking research agenda for water research. The project has resulted in more than 112 peer-reviewed publications and has contributed to an extensive, yet cohesive body of work. In particular, we we can claim the following specific contributions to the community. We have provided leadership in global change through coordinating efforts to develop a new vision for hydrology under new contexts and paradigms, and a new research agenda focused on changes in hydrology and society, and the promotion of the new scientific subfield of socio-hydrology. Our research has contributed to improved understanding and prediction of the inter-annual variability of catchment water balance and the buffering role of vegetation. We have contributed to enhancing our understanding of biogeochemical cycling at watershed scale through new insights gained into up-scaling from the reach scale. Our project team has helped to design artificial hillslopes for a major, long-term experiment now operational at Biosphere 2 near Tucson, Arizona. In addition to these scientific advances, the project has trained scores of young scientists, including more than 20 PhD students, in inter-disciplinary research, some of whom have gone on to lead successful careers themselves.
