Human populations and landscapes have been interacting for thousands of years, but the strength of these interactions has been increasing. The consequences of these intensified interactions and the actions that society could take to affect their course remain largely unknown. To address this gap, the nature and types of behaviors that result when humans and landscapes closely interact will be investigated with an integrated program of numerical model development, model testing, individualized and classroom instruction and public outreach for two specific cases: barrier island resorts, such as on the US east coast, and mountainous urban-wildland interfaces, such as on the margins of Los Angeles. Numerical models will be developed that include representations of both the behavior of economic and management actors and the ways in which landscapes respond to natural processes and human influence. Significant effort will be devoted to communicating the results and implications to other researchers, students, policy managers and the general public.
Barrier islands are low-lying strips of sand that are parallel to and separated from the mainland coast by lagoons, cut by inlets, and topped by sand dunes; they are popular vacation destinations. Barrier islands are modeled by tracking changes to their shape and volume from: beach erosion and deposition owing to storms and waves. The economics of resorts are modeled using two markets: a hotel building/buying/selling market, which connects profit-maximizing developers and hotel owners; and a tourism market, which connects hotel owners with tourists seeking the best vacation experience for their money. Managers in the model widen the beach and build up dunes to protect against storms and enhance beach quality. The model will be tested against historical measurements from the US east coast and will be used to explore how barrier island resorts respond to rising sea level and increased storminess resulting from global climate change.
The margins of mountain catchments offer attractive residential attributes, but development is subject to an array of significant hazards. In the model being developed for the urban-wildland boundary zone, shrubland vegetation grows between fires; wildfires consume vegetation and residences and promote erosion; landslides, floods and sediment-laden debris flows damage or destroy residences; developers build housing developments whose size and location are based on projected profits; and residents buy houses based on projected appreciation and attributes such as view and commute distance. Managers in the model approve developments; mitigate fires with prescribed burns; mitigate landslides, floods and debris flows with slope stabilization, debris basins, reservoirs and channel stabilization and entrenchment; and suppress fires. Historical data on fires, floods and urban expansion in Los Angeles will be used to test the model, and the effect of urbanization on fire size and frequency and the long-term change through space and time of the urban-wildland boundary under differing management strategies will be investigated.
This research bears directly on societally relevant problems and policy decisions associated with human encroachment on the natural environment and disaster management. Its broader impact will include individualized and classroom instruction, meetings with coastal managers and public outreach. One graduate student and three undergraduates will be introduced to and trained in techniques to address this category of problems and a UCSD course entitled Urban Landscapes will be taught to educate a broader group of students. The results will be presented to scientists and the public in web pages, two radio programs that will be produced from this project, and as a poster and computer exhibit at the Assateague Island National Seashore Visitor Center.
