(Hargrove, Borrok, Ferregut, Heyman, and Tweedie, The University of Texas at El Paso)
Scope This planning project is developing a research plan to analyze the resilience, adaptability, and transformability of the ecological/social system along the Middle Rio Grande River in response to climate and social change on the U.S./Mexico border. Key threats to water sustainability in the region include: 1) increasing salinization of surface and ground water; 2) increasing water demand from a growing population in the El Paso/Ciudad Juarez area; 3) water quality impacts from agricultural, municipal, and industrial discharges to the river; 4) changing regional climate that portends increased frequency and intensity of droughts interspersed with more intensive rainfall events; and 5) disparate water planning and management systems between the U.S. and Mexico. The region presents unique challenges in an ecologically fragile landscape, complicated by violence, migration, and social inequities. This region represents one of the most challenged border regions of the world. The objectives and associated activities of the project include: 1. Identify, collect, and summarize existing data, knowledge, and models. This is being accomplished by advertising and hosting an international workshop/conference and inviting key scientists to present results and discuss issues 2. Develop a process for integrating existing data, knowledge, and models into an overall model of the landscape/lifescape on the border, through the work of thematic teams. 3. Identify gaps in information, knowledge, and understanding, in relation to defining resilience, adaptability, and transformability, through the work of thematic teams. 4. Develop a research strategy for identifying and evaluating the determinants of resilience, adaptability, and transformability in response to the drivers of change and for assessing water sustainability on the border, based on the coupled human and natural dimensions of the landscape/lifescape, through a research planning workshop. The project is developing a process for integrating known and new information into predictive models of resilience, adaptability, and transformability of the "landscape/lifescape" on the border. The innovative aspect of this project is the focus on the coupled biophysical and human dimensions of water sustainability in the face of climate and social change. This project is producing an example of how to integrate science and policy aimed at water sustainability in complex river systems. Students will be encouraged to participate in the workshops and conference.
Significance Drawing on published and new research, an integrated understanding of the landscape and hydrological processes coupled with socioeconomic and political frameworks on the U.S./Mexico border can lead to predictive capabilities and improved strategies for protecting and managing important water resources in a fragile and threatened environment. The results can be used by a number of action agencies to better manage natural resources and to develop and implement improved policies to achieve sustainability on the border. Not only is the project contributing to a better understanding of sustainability on the border, but is contributing in fundamental ways to sustainability science. The results are applicable to many major river systems and international border areas throughout the world. Additionally, the project is building a consortium of universities and other research and action agencies in the region to become a regional 'think tank' on sustainability on the border. Since UTEP is a Hispanic Serving Institution, this project provides an unprecedented opportunity for training and engagement of Hispanic students and young professionals in cutting edge interdisciplinary research and education aimed at sustainability. The project is providing sustainability science education and research opportunities for 'the 21st Century Demographic'.
This project examined the combined surface and ground water system in the Middle Rio Grande basin from Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico, along the U.S./Mexican border through El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, and ending above the juncture with the Rio Conchos near Fort Quitman, TX. Water resource sustainability in this basin is threatened by: 1) Changing regional climate that portends increased frequency and intensity of droughts interspersed with more intensive rainfall events. 2) Limited surface water releases from upstream reservoirs due to prolonged drought conditions and reduced snowpack in the headwaters. 3) Increased pumping of groundwater resources to offset the lack of available surface water. 4) A large agricultural sector, almost entirely irrigated. 5) Increased water demand from a growing local population and expanding regional economy. 6) Increased salt loads in surface and ground water. 7) Dramatic loss of riparian habitats. 8) Disparate water planning and management systems between the U.S. and Mexico and the U.S. states of New Mexico and Texas, raising crucial transboundary questions. 9) Disparate rules governing water rights and allocations for surface vs. ground water. 10) A socioeconomic environment affected by industrialization, free trade, violence, migration, and profound social inequalities. The surface water supply is overallocated and subject to periodic droughts; the high quality groundwater storage is decreasing as it serves as a buffer for surface water shortfalls. This dynamic is being driven by a combination of climate change and human demand change (demographic-economic growth, shift toward groundwater as a water source). These issues are exacerbated by complicated jurisdictional boundaries within the United States and the international border with Mexico. As well as being an important river/aquifer segment in itself, this case is representative of arid and semi-arid basin around the country and the world, including many in strategically important areas. Through our planning project, we summarized the current science related to water resources sustainability in this border region and developed a proposed research agenda to address water sustainability in the region. Our proposed research agenda will produce a dynamic systems suite of models that include surface and subsurface hydrology (linked together), water quality and quantity, landscape change, climate change, demand models for water users, and governance constraints and incentives. Our proposed research agenda will provide a platform for engagement of a wide variety of stakeholders, who can define scenarios, goals, conditions, and objectives, and then examine long-term water sustainability outcomes. Cross-disciplinary groups will examine scenarios for three subsystems, agriculture, municipal and industrial, and relatively "natural" ecosystems. The central issue shaping water resources sustainability in this critical border region is the trade-off between short-term extractive use in response to climate change and human demand, and longer-term resilience, which is primarily reflected in the groundwater stored in the regions aquifers. We propose to organize teams around agriculture, urban, and natural systems. With input from each of these systems, we will quantify the dynamics of surface and subsurface water supplies and their use. We will also include strong educational and training components and active stakeholder engagement. The broader impacts of our proposed research agenda are: (1) developing a model for arid/semi-arid water basin management that scientists and stakeholders can apply around the world, including high population, economically important, and politically vital locations, such as are common in North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia; (2) implementing a novel interdisciplinary graduate education training using problem-based learning, experiential learning, and collaborative mentoring to produce new water professionals who will be prepared to meet the scientific challenges of climate and social change; and (3) engaging stakeholders in identifying plausible change scenarios, investigating the impact of adaptations and transformations on outcomes, and communicating scientific outcomes to decision-makers and the public. We will develop and implement effective approaches to "participatory modeling", broad-based stakeholder engagement in scientific modeling, technology, and policy, in a region, the U.S.-Mexico border, where existing management is top-down and management and participation has been fractured by borders. Because our institutions are either Hispanic-serving or are located in Mexico, a high percentage of the new professionals that we will train will be Hispanic.
