This project brings together a new research team to: 1) quantify and reduce uncertainties in physical and social/behavioral data sets for our active United States volcanoes; 2) analyze the complex processes of decision-making during volcanic crises, and 3) utilize Bayesian approaches to cope with incomplete, sometimes contradictory inputs into decision-making during these events. This project will begin a new, large collaboration between the Volcanic Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey and seven academic institutions.
The goal of this project is to improve the relationship with restless, potentially dangerous active volcanoes in the United States. Moderate to large volcanic eruptions are infrequent but high-consequence events of long duration and with multiple hazards. They carry a host of volcanological, engineering, mathematical, societal, planning, and economic problems, along with very high levels of uncertainty in all types of data. Amongst large geological hazards, they are almost unique in being preceded by weeks or months of clearly recognizable precursors which offer the potential for successful early interventions. The impacts of volcanic eruptions should be, for this reason, amongst the easiest to mitigate of all the great natural hazards. Nevertheless, the costs of volcanic disasters are often out of proportion to the magnitude of the parent eruptions.
