This proposal from the University of Southern California, in cooperation with the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, Los Angeles, the University of California, Santa Barbara, the University of California, San Diego, the University of California, Santa Cruz, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University, and the U.S. Geological Survey, requests funds to establish a Science and Technology Center entitled Southern California Earthquake Center. The Science Director of the Center will be Professor Keiiti Aki and the Executive Director of the Center will be Professor Thomas Henyey. The goal of the Center is to understand the physics of earthquakes, to develop a framework to integrate earthquake information of translation into hazard mitigation for societal benefit, to achieve a prototype application of a time-space dependent probabilistic hazard analysis for southern California, and to characterize earthquake ruptures before their occurrence through numerical modeling of rupture, geological field mapping of fault geometry, subsurface imaging of three-dimensional fault surfaces, and application of theoretical and statistical approaches to the physics of fault rupture. The approach is keyed to the development of a Master Model, which is a framework in which geologic, geodetic, geophysical, and seismological information pertinent to earthquakes in southern California will be integrated for the purpose of developing a time-space dependent probabilistic hazard analysis of the region which may be used for predicting the levels of strong ground motions. The Center's activities can be categorized into four major areas: data base maintenance, modeling and model construction, model maintenance, and interpretation and use of the models. Research groups will be organized to develop each technical component of the Master Model. Core activities include: establishment of a data center for real-time seismic data acquisition, data archiving and distribution, and data retrieval service; fault- specific geophysical, geodetic, and geologic field studies; analysis of existing and new short-period network data to improve the delineation of active faults; development of a physical model of the earthquake process to establish a physical basis for the characteristic earthquake model; investigation of source, path, and site effects for strong ground motion prediction; regional tectonics, and commencement of a conceptual study for a pilot geotechnical project in an area prone to liquefaction and/or landsliding. Much of the industrialized world lives in earthquake prone regions such as the Pacific Rim and the Alpine-Himalayan belt. Earthquake belts generally provide the most hospitable climates and the greatest abundance of natural resources. Thus, as population densities and concentrations of wealth grow in these areas, the earthquake risk increases. Earthquake hazard mitigation is increasingly important to society - the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake alone caused over $7 billion in damage and 66 deaths. Only through understanding the process can reliable forecasts be made of when and where potential destructive earthquakes may occur. The Center will stimulate enhanced activity in precollege education and in the development of human resources.
