9412712 Singh The primary objective of this proposal is development of a realistic and viable methodology for probabilistic production cost and marginal cost calculations in interconnected power systems. Probabilistic production cost and reliability evaluation are two interrelated areas of probabilistic modeling of power systems. Some recent advancements in multi-area reliability analysis methods will contribute to the proposed solution of problems in production costing, and similarly the solution of some problems in production cost calculation in the proposed research will lead to enhancement of the capability of multi-area reliability analysis techniques. The end product is expected to be an integrated approach for production cost, marginal cost, and reliability indices. Several problems have been identifies whose solution will provide significant advancement of the probabilistic production cost modeling of interconnected power systems and to lead to viable solutions. These problems are: Find a decomposition-simulation procedure which, considering all loads states, can find indices after each unit addition by single decomposition. Find efficient techniques for determining production cost and geographically differentiated marginal cost. Develop methods for more accurate modeling of correlated area loads in an interconnected power system. Develop a methodology for incorporating load dependent transmission model in the decomposition process. Develop a methodology for incorporating time dependent interchanges in the decomposition process. Investigate DC Flow vs Network Flow model. Find solutions to problems associated with area-wide dispatch. Develop the concept of equivalent assistance for a looped network. Investigate the use of continuous distributions. Find an algorithm for parallelization of the decomposition- simulation p rocess ***
