The proposed work as an International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) participant would expand the current work of the researcher which is currently focused on developing a comprehensive understanding of the complex tradeoffs and risks involved in water, energy, and food management. The proposed work for IIASA will focus on estimating how demand side management of U.S. water resources may be affected by anthropogenic induced climate change. Historical data on and assumptions regarding future trends of population, economic growth, technological development, and resources will be used to make a portfolio of scenarios. These scenarios will be used in conjunction with climate scenarios to estimate how water demands from thermoelectric, agricultural, industrial, domestic, and public sectors, as well as water requirements for ecosystem services, may change over the next seventy years.
Increased population and patterns of population density, economic growth, and development all increase water, energy, and food demands. The impacts of a changing climate will exacerbate competition for these resources, especially given the strong interrelationships among water, energy, and food. Although demand for individual resources has been studied, a systematic evaluation of readily available data has not been undertaken to evaluate water-energy-food linkages. Although these estimates cannot possibly consider the full range of plausible futures, they will expose uncertainties and promote further understanding of the impacts of linkages among climate change, resource use, and socio-economic and environmental drivers. The results of this work will be used with a multiattribute utility analysis (MAU) that will be designed to serve as a stakeholder based decision-support framework; such a framework will allow U.S. stakeholders to co-manage water, energy, and food resources in a more informed manner.
Dissemination of the anticipated results is a key aspect of this work, as the results are intended to be used to support decision makers and their informational needs. All results posed in this proposal will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at national conferences, and available on the Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment webpage. In addition to gaining important research skills, conducting research at IIASA will expand the researcher?s knowledge base and allow her to gain additional perspective on global environmental, economic, social, and political issues. The opportunity to network with peers who have similar interests will foster future partnerships. Resource security and decision-making are multifaceted and complex research areas; experience and training gained with respect to interdisciplinary and international collaboration will strongly contribute to the researcher?s career goals.
Abstract Water demand is difficult to enumerate because, more often than not, it is poorly measured or not publically reported. Without such data, it is challenging to assess how policies will affect water demands. I performed a comprehensive literature review to provide meaningful context to analysts using water estimates and making projections. Looking at historical water-use data can move forecasts from the realm of "predicting the future" to the realm of identifying physical, political, and behavioral efforts to meet future goals. My results suggest that forecasts should not be used to predict macro-scale water-use, but to evaluate alternative demand-side measures that will allow regions to meet water-use goals. To do this successfully, it is critical to understand drivers by looking at historical water-use. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) started reporting on national water-use in 1950 and has continued to do so in five-year increments. The circulars have evolved since 1950, increasing both the number of categories (e.g., domestic, industry, agriculture, etc.) and the spatial scale of the reports (e.g., national, state, and county level data). Categories have also been reclassified from circular to circular, so appropriate comparisons and categories need to be harmonized when looking at the full time-series. Although USGS water reports present the most reliable water use information in the country, there are spatial, temporal, and categorical limitations and tradeoffs associated with the data, and these limitations and tradeoffs need to be acknowledged when using the data in analyses. I constructed a timeline identifying commonalities and differences in category definitions from 1950-2005 so researchers using the USGS estimates can more easily align categories over the full time-series. I also developed a horizontal hierarchy diagram to show the tradeoffs and limitations associated with the data, implications of each tradeoff and limitation, and impacts on projections. Intellectual Merit This work exposes uncertainties in water use estimates. It also provides information that can promote further understanding of the linkages among climate change, resource use, and socio-economic and environmental drivers. The results of this work will allow U.S. stakeholders to manage water resources in a more informed manner. Broader Impacts Dissemination of my results in peer-reviewed journals and national conferences is a key aspect of this work because the results are intended to be used to support decision makers and their informational needs. Conducting research as part of the Young Summer Scientist Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis expanded my knowledge base and allowed me to gain additional perspective on global environmental, economic, social, and political issues. The program provided me with the opportunity to network with peers who had similar interests, but different backgrounds, fostering my scientific communication skills.
