This project supports a collaborative research between Dr. Tayfur Altiok, Department of Industrial and System Engineering, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey and Dr. Ilhan Or, Industrial Engineering, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey. The PIs are to develop a Bayesian risk assessment model for analyzing maritime accident scenarios. While the use of the model will be demonstrated using the Bosporus as an example, its framework will be applicable to accident probability assessment in other waterways and potentially also cross into other transportation modes as well. The incorporation of autocorrelations within vessel classes and arrival patterns advances the state of the art in MTS simulations and it would be of great interest to see the effect of these dependencies on the assessment of maritime accident risk. The framework would be extended to multiple objectives and would include economic and security objectives as part of the framework. The PIs plan to consider the amount of accident data available for this region by examining the hundreds of accidents a year in this region, using a simulation to give the frequency of situations and using the data to estimate the probabilities of accidents in these situations. This will help define relationships among the many parameters considered. The team is very well qualified to conduct this project and the Turkish PI has already done work in this region and has a simulation model already developed. The PIs will consider the applicability of the results to the Mississippi and the Houston Ship Channel.
What are the broader impacts of the proposed activity? The Bosporus is a unique waterway. It is international, yet fully passing within Turkey. It passes through an area of high population density and yet is itself a lifeline to several countries that need to use it for their foreign commerce. It has been increasingly used for transport of oil shipping and for other hazard materials cargo. This research should be very valuable groundwork for the shipping industry and the port industry by providing basic methodology that can be used with unique data for individual waterways to minimize risk. The technology can also be translated into homeland security issues as well. It is likely to be a rich learning environment. The simulation of the Bosporus would be very appealing to many instructors and students.
