This award will support a three-year cooperative research project in risk analysis that will involve Professor Lucien Duckstein, University of Arizona; Professor Istvan Bogardi, University of Nebraska; and three faculty members at the Vienna Agricultural University in Austria: H.-P. Nachtnebel, S. A. Radler, and J. Fuerst. The collaborative effort is concerned with an examination of multicriterion decision-making (MCDM) tools that have been applied to model the mitigation of the hazardous effects of water resources development on the human environment. Fuzzy set theory and Bayesian theory will be combined with MCDM techniques to develop methodologies that take into account the existence of both imprecision and uncertainty in water resource systems. These methodologies will be applied to three illustrative, real-world problem areas: water-related power systems, regional water system design, and multicriterion groundwater management. Special emphasis will be placed on interactive computer techniques as well as graphical display of the data, definition of the model structure, and generation of alternatives. A clear representation of system output will be sought, as well as the proper design of a knowledge base to aid in the decision process. Decision makers in the water resources field and related areas are currently without the requisite analytical tools to incorporate risk, uncertainty, and imprecision in the decision-making process in an adequate way. There is thus a recognized need for further development of risk analysis methodology, especially within a multicriterion framework. The cooperating researchers in this project will attempt to improve risk assessment and management methodology by demonstrating how trade-offs can be made between environmental risks and corresponding costs. Specific applications to water resources and hazardous waste management in the United States and Austria will be sought. The selected application areas are important in both countries, and require the utilization of advanced methods of risk analysis for thorough study. Both the U.S. and the Austrian partners in this effort have carried out intensive research activity in MCDM analysis of water resources engineering systems and in risk/reliability analysis, and the project is expected to benefit greatly from their combined expertise.
