This award will support collaborative research between Dr. Peter Lamb of the University of Illinois/State Water Survey Division and Dr. Neville Nicholls of the Australian Bureau of Meterorology Research Centre. This research is to extend and broaden a University of Illinois/State Water Survey research program concerned with the design of growing season climate predictions for midwestern agriculture. In this cooperative project, the U.S. effort will be extended to address the climate prediction design issue for grain sorghum production in northeastern Australia. This new research will enhance the extensive economic modeling capabilities developed by the U.S. midwestern work. It will also attempt to exploit the substantial growing season climate prediction skill that is inherent in the strong control that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon exerts on northeastern Australian rainfall. The project will provide a perspective on results reached for the U.S. Midwest (where the growing season climate is less predictable), furnish a better understanding of the value of currently achievable climate prediction skill, provide a modus operandi for designing and valuing climate prediction systems for other sectors of Australian agriculture, as well as for developing nations whose growing season rainfall is strongly controlled by ENSO. The project represents excellent collaboration in combining Australian atmospheric scientist expertise and Australian data on Southern Oscillation (SO)-based seasonal rainfall with the extensive economic modeling capabilities of the U.S.research team. This is important fundamental work on climate prediction design research, as well as having potential for improving agricultural productivity.
