*** 9760684 Vickery This Small Business Innovation Research Phase I project will use a large scale, validated hurricane simulation technique, coupled with existing storm surge models to develop the first risk consistent modeling of the combined action of direct wind and storm surge produced by hurricanes. The storm surge analysis and resulting flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) were not developed in a statistically rigorous manner, and thus the true return periods associated with the 100 year storm surge is, in fact, not known. To assess the risk of storm damage to structures, the combined action of wind and storm surge must be treated as they are inherently coupled, and damage in many cases is produced by a combination of the two storm perils. The simulation approach simultaneously determines wind speeds and storm surge levels, using an extensively validated hurricane wind field yielding the first consistent wind/surge design criteria thus allowing the annual joint probability distribution of wind speed and storm surge to be determined. A primary commercial application for this research includes a new risk consistent approach for insurance companies to assess their true total risk. The new approach may yield further business opportunities for insurance companies in many cases, relieving the Federal Government of some of its risk. Other potential applications include the utility industry, which with this research will be able to produce more cost effective transmission and distribution system designs in coastal areas. ***
