*** 9801614 Bruce This Small Business Innovation Research Phase II project will conduct new and innovative research into statistical methodology for long memory processes. These processes can be used to model time series commonly encountered in geophysics, oceanography, astronomy, economics, physiology and other disciplines. The essence of a long memory process is that correlation between observations decreases slowly as separation in time increases. Use of standard time series methodology with these can lead to incorrect statistical analysis; e.g., confidence intervals for the mean can be unrealistically small. This research project will make important advances toward a complete methodology for long memory processes, a fundamental contribution to science. The ultimate objective is to implement the research and existing methodology into an object-oriented software tool kit for modeling long memory time series for use by a broad range of statisticians, data analysts and scientists. If successful, the research will lead to a software tool kit offering complete statistical methodology for modeling long memory time series. The tool kit will be marketed as an S-PLUS module and as a MathCAD function pack and electronic book. In addition, a practitioner's casebook of examples will be developed and marketed separately. ***
