The investigators will launch an interdisciplinary study of changing ocean conditions in the northern California Current during the 6-year GLOBEC LTOP period, which encompassed an El Nino/La Nina transition, an invasion of Subarctic water and a shift in the climate regime of the North Pacific Ocean. They will focus on synthesizing multiple datasets (in situ oceanographic data, coastal salmon survival data, and indices of climate or environmental status) to learn how changes in water masses, currents, stratification, nutrient concentrations, etc., respond to climate forcing and in turn affect primary production and salmon survival. The four specific objectives of the study are (1) to relate the changing in situ physical and chemical ocean conditions observed during the major climate events of 1997-2003 to primary production and salmon survival, (2) to determine whether in situ physical and chemical ocean conditions, primary production, and salmon survival in the upwelling domains north and south of Cape Blanco have similar interannual variability, (3) to determine whether seasonal averages and interannual variability of ocean conditions in the northern California Current system during the 1997-2003 epoch system were significantly different from earlier epochs for which historical data are available and (4) to relate commonly used indices of ocean conditions to local in situ measures which directly affect primary production and advection and to search for improved indices and measures. This synthesis of interdisciplinary oceanographic data with salmon survival and climate indices will advance intellectual understanding of critical processes in coastal upwelling ecosystems and improve understanding of the dynamic processes that contribute to statistical correlations between salmon survival and climate indices. This study will have broad impacts on the future of ecosystem monitoring and management in the Northeast Pacific, and on future research in other coastal upwelling regions. Identifying a few in situ measures or parameters that are critical for primary production and for salmon smolt survival would make it feasible and efficient to use coastal observing stations to monitor the health of the upwelling ecosystem.
