Intellectual Merit: This research examines the hypotheses that hydrologic events at deep ocean seeps can be directly related to tectonic events and that active faults are a hydrologic connection between the seafloor and zone of earthquake generation. To do this, time series measurements are being taken of fluid expulsion associated with the Main Marmara Fault, the submerged western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone which is a major active fault off the coast of Turkey. A unique sampling device that can sample fluids up to a year in duration will be placed along the trace of the fault on the seafloor; and a time series record of fluid flow rates and fluid chemistry will be collected. Dissolved gases (He and CO2) in the fluids will be analyzed for their isotopic signature. The overall chemistry of the fluids will also be evaluated. Resulting data will be interpreted within the larger framework of complementary water column, pore pressure, geophysical, additional geochemical, and GPS datasets being collected at no additional cost by members of the international US, French, and Turkish research team working on the Marmara Sea project (MARNAUT). Research objectives are to understand how fluid expulsion intensity and source depth correlate with tectonic context, sedimentation history, and earthquake timing.
Broader Impacts: The broader impacts of the work include collaboration with French and Turkish scientists and other international partners. It will also support an early career scientist and promote further development and testing of a unique set of fluid monitoring devices and establish their potential for real time monitoring seismic events and possible use in earthquake prediction. The work also has broader societal significance because the fault to be monitored has a history of major and periodic earthquake activity that causes significant loss of property and lives in high density population centers in Istanbul and surrounding regions.
