Marine ecosystems are characterized by complex interactions among biological components and within the physical setting. The complexity of these systems makes them difficult to understand or interpret based on either observations or models, both of which suffer from incomplete knowledge of the natural system. Of interest to many scientific questions and to management is the utility of broad, simplifying concepts about how such systems operate and how they change over time. Among these concepts are bottom-up control (the idea that nutrient sources and lower trophic levels govern the ecosystem), top-down control (the idea that organisms at the highest trophic levels govern), and regime shifts (major restructuring of the system due to natural or anthropogenic, or combined, forcing).
A basic tenet of biological oceanography is the coupling between physical processes and population dynamics. The study of these connections has been based on certain simplifications, particularly the emphasis on one, or very few, trophic components. The parallel development of trophic network models (e.g., ECOPATH) represents an effort to study the relationships between a more complete spectrum of trophic groups from an energy transfer and predator-prey perspective. Yet, ecosystem structure, function, and behavior depend on the physical context: mixing, advection, water residence time, and seasonality, especially for shelf ecosystems. These terms define production, recycling, and export rates and set the scope of benthic-pelagic coupling, but they are rarely incorporated into trophic network models. There is clear need to develop portable methods of analysis that can illuminate physical-biological interactions across a wide range of ecosystems and demonstrate their effects on system productivity and resilience at all trophic levels. However, there is a simultaneous risk of such models becoming so complex that untangling the mechanisms and artifacts of model dynamics quickly becomes intractable.
A portable, coupled bio-physical model framework of intermediate trophic and physical resolution is a potential solution that will be developed in this project. The goal is to produce models simple enough to understand, but complex enough to be realistic. Thus, about 5 physical boxes and about 20 ecological compartments are expected to be included. The models will be developed for four contrasting, data-rich continental shelf ecosystems. This project will use the range of food webs and physical forcing characteristic of these four systems to do the following. 1. Assess the merits and disadvantages of studying community dynamics in terms of aggregated functional groups as the appropriate level of trophic resolution. 2. Compare the relative roles of physical processes and trophic network structure in determining system productivity, variability, and resilience across all trophic levels, including both pelagic and benthic food webs. 3. Test the applicability of broad concepts of ecosystem behavior such as bottom-up vs. top-down control of community dynamics, or of sudden regime shifts.
The project will contribute to the education of future scientists through participation in active research. The public will be informed about ocean ecosystem issues through development of a museum exhibit. Model code will be provided to the community for further use and development. Collaboration with NOAA scientists will foster application of project results to practical management issues.
