This study will investigate the ecological consequences of the decimation of sea star populations by wasting disease along the Oregon coast. Hallmarks of wasting disease are the formation of sores on the sea star that progress to cause loss of arms, and ultimately death of the animal. Wasting disease was reported in sea star populations including those of the purple sea star, Pisaster ochraceus, in British Columbia, Washington, and California as early as April 2013. In Oregon, wasting was first observed in April 2014, and by June 2014 rates of infection ranged up to 80%, and sea star abundance had declined. At that rate, many populations may disappear by the end of summer 2014. Prior research has shown that in the absence of the purple sea star, mid-shore mussel populations increase, and ultimately overgrow the sea weeds and invertebrates that occur low on the shore, reducing biodiversity. However, because disease events of this magnitude have never occurred along the entire coastline, it is unclear if the small-scale expansion of mussels observed previously will be a general result of this event. One possibility is that predators unaffected by wasting, such as whelks and crabs, will increase their predation effects and blunt the expected invasion of mussels to the low shore. The research in this project will evaluate this possibility by testing the role of these alternative predators. Broader Impacts include the training of undergraduate and graduate students, the involvement of coastal residents and the production of microdocumentaries and video to document the changing context of this ecosystem.
The research project is designed to test three hypotheses. First, that in the absence of Pisaster ochraceus, predation by whelks will increase in strength through increases in whelk abundance and in whelk size, and at least partially compensate for the absence of Pisaster. Second, the small sea star Leptasterias spp. will also expand its role as a predator through increased size and abundance, and expansion of its habitat beyond mussel beds. Although individuals of this sea star have been observed to suffer from wasting as well, the frequency so far appears low, and it seems likely this species may persist. Third, the crab Cancer productus, normally mostly a subtidal species, will expand its range into the intertidal and help to compensate for the loss of Pisaster. Tests of these hypotheses will include manual removal experiments (whelk removal, Leptasterias removal, removal of both and of neither), cage exclusion experiments (whelk exclusions), cage inclusion-exclusion experiments (Leptasterias inclusion, Leptasterias exclusion). Experiments will be replicated with appropriate controls, and done at multiple sites on the central Oregon coast that vary naturally in population abundances, rates of prey and predator recruitment, and oceanographic conditions. Results obtained under this unprecedented set of circumstances will deepen and expand our empirical understanding of the dynamics of an iconic ecosystem, and will help parameterize community models.
