The Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel (OSEP) of the National Research Council proposes to undertake a study to identify and explore the key factors that explain the length of time from the receipt of the baccalaureate to completion of the research doctorate. Given known demographic trends and the dramatic increase expected in the number of job openings in the academic sector in the late 1990s it may be necessary for federal policy makers to find ways to generate an increase in the supply of new doctorates. One possible way to do this is by reversing the trend toward longer completion times. Historically, length of time has differed across doctoral fields and within these fields time- to-degree has been rising. Yet, little is known about why these differences arise, how important the trends may be as determinants of doctorate production, and whether these trends can be altered. A major output of the proposed study is a time series data base for the period 1967-1986 for each of eleven science and engineering fields. This data base will be used to test a model to determine the effects of market forces, demographic and institutional factors, and federal and other sources of financial aid. They will also provide some insight into the question of whether the quality of the baccalaureate and doctorate granting departments of students affects their length of time to completion.
