Funds are provided to use a new data set of Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration, derived from weekly operational ice charts spanning more than three decades (1972-2004), to analyze: (1) long-term regional variability and trends in sea ice area and extent; (2) the changing mix of ice types in the Arctic Ocean, in order to understand the recent record low summer ice extent minima; (3) the duration of the ice season, as an indicator of climate change; and (4) the modes of variability of the ice edge, in order to develop a predictive capability for sea ice extent. The data set is largely independent of the popular passive microwave sea ice concentration products that are heavily used by the sea ice community.
Sea ice extent is believed by many to be a bellwether of environmental response to climate change in the Arctic. This project will utilize a long historical data set in an efficient manner to document the variability of this parameter. The results are anticipated to be important for the verification and skill assessment of climate models.
