The need for behaviorally realistic risk analysis arises in many domains. The project will pursue it in the context of three relatively unrelated risks: (a) radiological emergencies, (b) adolescents' safety and violence, and (c) animal vectors spreading disease to humans. These domains include commonly experienced risks (e.g., waste disposal, bullying), as well as the more novel ones of terrorism. In addition to their timeliness and public interest, these domains have features that will force the development of a robust methodology: They can evoke powerful emotions. They require contributions from multiple disciplines. They raise difficult value tradeoffs. Their complexity and unfamiliarity defy simplistic communication strategies.
The project will develop and apply the emerging methodology of integrated assessment to include the social, behavioral, and economic sciences, in addressing these complex social problems. Combining these diverse approaches, across these three critically important risk domains, the research team will document the enhanced version of integrated assessment, in such a way as to facilitate other researchers applying it to other domains. The substantive findings will be disseminated through the usual route of peer-reviewed publication and scientific presentations, and completion of a book. However, the methodological results must be given extra attention to ensure that they emerge in a generally applicable format. To this end, a workshop will be held in year three, inviting interested faculty, researchers, and advanced graduate students from fields ranging from engineering to natural and social sciences. It will use worked examples from the three risk domains, with the goal of enabling attendees to start new interdisciplinary collaborations.
