Azamat K. Junisbai Indiana University
A wealth of public opinion studies conducted in Western democracies tell a great deal about ordinary citizens' expectations of their governments' social spending programs, as well as about how ordinary citizens explain why socio-economic inequality exists and what to do about it. It is possible to predict, for example, which individuals are more likely to favor greater spending on social programs or which are likely to view inequality as a necessary evil. It is also possible to predict differences between countries regarding popular expectations about how and to what degree the government should redistribute wealth and about the government's responsibility in ensuring the welfare of its citizens.
At the same time, however, much less is known about these same issues in countries located outside of the predominantly Christian democratic West. To fill this gap, in this Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Research the co-PI will organize nationally representative surveys of popular attitudes toward the welfare state and distributive justice in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, two post-Soviet Central Asian countries that differ starkly from the usual venues of most studies to date. The fact that these countries are poorer, less democratic, and predominantly Muslim makes them qualitatively different from other settings in which such studies have taken place. Because so many people in the world still live under non-democratic rule, this study has the potential to make an important contribution. Paradoxically, over the long run, regimes whose survival is less reliant on fair elections and democratic politics might be more dependent on welfare programs and benefits for retaining their legitimacy and, ultimately, power.
In addition to its academic relevance, a nuanced understanding of popular expectations about distributive justice is vital for future political and economic development in Central Asia and should be of strong interest to policy-makers both inside and outside the region. The effects of market transition have been particularly acute in Central Asia, traditionally the poorest and most heavily subsidized part of the former Soviet Union. Confounded by the absence of viable democratic institutions, the disintegration of the Soviet-era social safety net and the resulting widespread impoverishment have been so grave as to make some observers of the region wary of the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in these recently secular societies. The urgency of these issues was illustrated by the recent uprising of the poor in Kyrgyzstan, which led to the fall of the ruling government and former President Akaev's sudden resignation.
The surveys will produce a unique, internationally comparative dataset. In designing the questionnaire, translated and pre-tested questions originally employed as part of the International Social Justice Project (ISJP) in Russia in 1996 were combined with questions from the Social Inequality module of the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) and the World Values Survey (WVS), both administered in Russia in 1999. The use of well-established questions enables theoretically intriguing comparisons of data collected in Central Asia to existing datasets originating elsewhere and helps ensure reliable and valid measurement.
