When do governments make concessions as a result of insurgent violence? When do those concessions end the violence? This project examines these questions in regard to language-groups' autonomy movements in India. Numerous minority language groups have sought their own territorial entities within India and several insurgencies have grown out of such movements. This study shows that these cases defy the common assumption that concessions result when governments cannot out-last insurgents in a war of attrition. Rather, the key strategic dilemma for the government is to identify local political actors with sufficient resources to keep peace once the government withdraws its military presence from the conflict-prone area. Concessions occur when the government believes an insurgent leader is more powerful than other local political strongmen. The hypotheses will be evaluated through the use of quantitative data on all of India's language groups. This dataset will be compiled over the next 18 months. In addition, the project will draw on a 3-month field study of an ongoing linguistic autonomy movement in Northeast India.
Intellectual importance: Cross-national study of internal conflict has succeeded in identifying a number of factors that increase the risk of violence against the state. These studies are particularly powerful for explaining large rebellions that tend to end in military victory by one side. Many internal conflicts, including those most important to the international community, that are highly asymmetric, however, tend to end in negotiated settlement. Yet, concessions to asymmetric violence have not been addressed in the recent empirical civil war literature. This project also addresses the limitations of the theoretical literature on insurgency. Analysis of small civil wars is generally based on the presumption that these are wars of attrition. Coercive responses to rebellion are often advocated on the grounds that they demonstrate the resolve of the government. There are known analytical and empirical problems with war of attrition theories, however, and this project offers an alternative analysis of the politics of small civil war.
Outcomes and broader impacts: This project will address concerns of both policy analysts and academics. The study will also hire Indian graduate students as research assistants, which will create new opportunities for local students to increase their practical involvement in political science.
