The past 30 years have seen major advances in many aspects of hurricane forecasting, but there has been little systematic research on the way coastal populations interpret the weather information that is communicated to them. To date, most evaluations of hurricane information have comprised reaction criteria (asking whether potential users like a display) rather than learning (testing whether users understand a display) or performance (whether a display changes users? decisions) criteria. However, there is a growing body of anecdotal evidence that many people misunderstand the displays meteorologists are providing. To better understand how people interpret hurricane forecasts and the uncertainties in those forecasts, this research will systematically examine the cognitive processes involved in hurricane tracking by conducting an evaluation of existing and novel hurricane information displays. The first task will assess the ways in which users interpret three basic elements of storm track information?the trailing track (where the storm has been), the forecast track (where it is most likely to go), and track uncertainty (how likely it is to deviate from the forecast track). Participants in different experimental conditions will observe simulated hurricanes described by these three basic elements. Some participants will be given information about only one basic element (e.g., forecast track only), others will be given information about two basic elements in combination (e.g., forecast track and uncertainty cone), and some will be given information about all three basic elements. By comparing participants in these information conditions, the research team will be able to gain insight into how each of the three basic elements affects people?s expectations about storm tracks over time. The second task will focus on the third basic element of hurricane track information (track uncertainty) by comparing a conventional uncertainty cone with five alternative track uncertainty displays?numeric probabilities, color-coded probabilities, terrain coded probabilities, arrow glyphs, and dynamic tracks. Comparing the data from these six information conditions will allow us to determine if any of the alternative displays provides a better way of conveying track uncertainty. Finally, the third task will use the findings from the first two tasks to design and evaluate new ways of visualizing storm information.
The proposed research will provide a rigorous assessment of the cognitive processes involved in hurricane tracking. Accordingly, it has implications for the cognitive psychology (especially judgment and decision making) of complex dynamic tasks. In addition, the project will have implications for instruction because there is very little research that addresses the problems of training adults to perform rarely performed, but critical, judgment tasks such as hurricane tracking. The project will provide meteorologists with a better understanding of the ways in which people interpret hurricane forecasts and the uncertainties in those forecasts. This improved understanding will allow them to communicate more effectively with coastal populations and reduce the probability that lives will be lost in hurricanes that deviate from their forecast tracks.
