Popular support for the incumbent regime is widely recognized to facilitate the durability of democratic regimes, but its role in sustaining non-democratic regimes has not received systematic empirical inquiry. Numerous studies have found a remarkably high level of popular support for the incumbent regime in China despite the lack of transparent institutions, effective governance, and accountability to the people it governs. Existing academic studies on regime support in China are not conclusive: they include little regional variation, concentrate on a single social sector rather than the general population, or are based on data from ten or more years ago. Moreover, studies of governance and public goods provision in China - crucial in generating regime support - do not link these factors to the level of regime support. This project gathers more accurate, more generalizable, and more timely data from an original survey and from secondary sources. These individual-level and aggregate data are used to test hypotheses concerning the socioeconomic and contextual determinants of regime support in China.
The results from this study address two critical and much debated theoretical questions: (1) how do non-democratic regimes, which lack the transparency and accountability necessary to gather meaningful feedback, generate popular support; and (2) what factors influence popular attitudes towards the current regime, and the potential support for regime change? These theoretical questions are derived not only from current debates about political developments in China, but also reflect ongoing scholarly debates regarding the sustainability of authoritarian regimes and the cultural, structural, and strategic variables that influence regime survival.
Broader Impacts
Integration of Research and Education: The project includes the participation of graduate research assistants to promote the integration of their education with original research. The resulting products are also be appropriate as college texts.
International Scholarly Cooperation: this project benefits scholarly cooperation between American and Chinese scholars. It includes a collaboration between the PI and the Research Center for Contemporary China of Peking University. Collaboration between American and Chinese scholars remains limited, and this project contributes to improving that relationship, lay the foundation for increased cooperation in the future, and thereby lead to more fruitful academic research.
Policy Impact: The findings from this project will have immediate implications for American foreign policy. Many policy makers assume that promoting the economic development of China will hasten its democratization. However, the Chinese government expects that economic growth will bolster its popular support, not present a threat to its authority. Thus, a better understanding of the goals and preferences of China's population, as well as its leaders, and the level of popular support for the current regime is necessary to evaluate the prospects for political change and to devise proper policies to promote it.
