How can outsiders help actors locked in deadly conflict settle their differences peacefully? This question is often raised by peacemaking practitioners, policy analysts, and academics. Using statistical analyses and in-depth case studies, this project examines how individuals and organizations outside the conflict can contribute to ending civil wars by providing information to the warring parties, i.e., by acting as mediators or advisors.
Recent studies have begun to specify ways in which third parties contribute to peacemaking. One way third parties help is by guaranteeing the terms of an otherwise unenforceable settlement. However, the credibility of such guarantees is often a serious concern to the combatants. To persuade the actors to commit to the settlement, a third party guarantor may have to deploy overwhelming force or demonstrate willingness to use violence.
This project focuses on a less costly and risky third-party role: providing information. By offering proposals or advice to the combatants, the third party can help bring about a settlement that is self-enforceable because it reflects the balance of power and resolve.
How can information providers become even more effective? This project tests two main expectations: 1) that early and sustained peacemaking is more informed and credible, and thus more effective, than one-off efforts late in a conflict, and 2) that third parties can boost their credibility by providing development aid, financial resources, or other investments that demonstrate their genuine commitment to the peace process. These expectations are tested against a new database on third party peacemaking in all armed conflicts between 1989 and 2008. This new dataset provides much more detail than current databases. It includes information on third parties ranging from prominent individuals, (e.g., Nelson Mandela), to representatives of states, to inter-governmental organizations (e.g., the United Nations and the European Union). Special attention is paid to non-state third parties (e.g., individuals, non-governmental organizations, and religious actors).
An important aspect of this project is concern for "quality peace" and not just the absence of active fighting. It focuses not only on how third parties may contribute to the laying down of arms in civil wars, but also to increased respect for human rights and reduced poverty.
