Canada appears to be facing an era of debilitating political deadlock where deep-seated regional and ethno-linguistic cleavages prevent any single party from capturing a majority of seats in the Parliament. The last three elections have each resulted in a minority government, and a fourth consecutive minority government looks likely. Little is known about how citizens respond when democratic systems that, for a number of successive elections, produced stable governments with comfortable majorities switch to producing successive short-lived minority governments.
Given this context, this study focuses on the following topics. First, how does the seemingly endless procession of short-lived minority governments impact support for the Canadian political system? Second, who do Canadians blame for the ongoing instability? Third, do Canadians desire significant institutional change and, if so, what changes do they want? Fourth, who do the citizens believe is responsible for the serious economic and political problems facing Canada? Fifth, how do citizens assign credit and blame to parties for handling (or failure to handle) these problems? Sixth and finally, how do these factors affect party choice and electoral turnout?
To answer these questions, the researchers use a two wave internet survey involving 3,000 respondents in the initial wave. The initial wave will occur prior to the election. The second wave will involve recontacts after the election with the initial set of interviewees.
The data from the survey will be made public within one year of the researchers receiving the data sets. In addition, this survey is modeled after the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. The support from the National Science Foundation provides resources for a core set of questions on the survey. This allows other scholars to purchase modules on the survey to address specific questions of interest to them. They are able to stretch their own scarce resources by not having to pay for the core set of questions.
By producing a majority government, the 2011 federal election ended a lengthy period of instability in Canadian national politics. That period had begun in 2004 when the then new Conservative Party of Canada had nearly upset the Liberals. Reducing the Liberals to a minority government in 2004, the CPC defeated them in 2006. However, the Conservatives could not win a majority in either that election or in the subsequent one in 2008. Throughout much of the 2011 campaign, it looked like the result would be yet another Conservative minority. But, history did not repeat itself a third time. Although their vote share was only two percent greater than it had been in 2008, the Conservatives benefitted from a very strong performance by the NDP and very weak ones by the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. The result was two big winners and two big losers. The CPC and the NDP were the big winners—the former party got its majority and the latter became the official opposition party in Ottawa for the first time since its predecessor, the CCF, was founded in 1932. The big losers were the Liberals and the Bloc. The Liberals were reduced to "third party" status for the first time in history with a meager contingent of 34 MPs, and the Bloc returned only 4 MPS. Both Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and BQ Leader, Gilles Duceppe lost their seats. The NSF funded election survey has allowed to understand what happened in the 2011 Canadian election, and why Canadians voted as they did. As is typical in Canadian elections, a powerful combination of party leader images, judgments about party and leader performance on valence issues, and flexible partisan attachments did much to drive the vote. Although many voters remained less than enthusiastic about CPC Chieftain Stephen Harper, they believed that he was the most capable leader on the issue that mattered most, the economy. Many judged that he had done a good job in guiding Canada through the recent economic crisis and, in sharp contrast to 2008, they expressed optimism about the future. NDP leader Jack Layton was in some sense a mirror-image of Harper; although he had not made a convincing case that he was best able to deal with the economy or most other important issues, he was extremely well liked. In sharp contrast to his rivals, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff was neither loved nor trusted. Ignatieff had correctly concluded that there were political gains to be had by charging that Prime Minister Harper was a "control freak" who had held Parliament in contempt and run rough-shod over Canadian democracy. However, Ignatieff was unable to capitalize on these charges. Framed by Conservative attack ads as an arrogant, self-centered Harvard professor who was "just visiting" Canada on the prospect of becoming prime minister, Ignatieff received an extremely chilly reception from the electorate. Snookered by his street-smart NDP rival in the first leader debate, Ignatieff never recovered and Liberal fortunes went straight down-hill in the last two weeks of the campaign. The day after the election he announced his resignation as Liberal leader and quickly returned to academic life. Operating quietly in the background was partisanship, the third in the triumvirate of explanatory variables that animate the valence politics model of electoral choice that does much to explain why Canadians vote as they do. The fact that the Conservatives won a majority government should not be taken as a sign that a majority of Canadians are especially enthusiastic about the CPC or any of the other choices on offer in federal politics. Indeed, when non-voters are taken into account, one sees that the CPC won a majority government with the support of slightly less than one eligible voter in four. The NDP was supported by less than one eligible voter in five, and the Liberals, by only slightly more than one eligible voter in ten. As in 2008, Canadians' most popular choice in 2011 was to stay home and endorse "none of the above." For now, Canada's single-member plurality electoral system has delivered Mr. Harper and his CPC colleagues a parliamentary majority, and that's that.
