In this research, the PIs plan to develop a new theory of human economic and strategic decision making and behavior, to test it experimentally, and to investigate the neural and genetic basis of the factors identified in the model. The approach involves unifying two different theoretical views of human behavior. One view, derived from Personality Theory, involves what are known as the "big five" -- five major dimensions of personality shown to influence behavior. The second view, derived from Decision Theory, is that economic behavior is determined by attitudes toward uncertainty and attitudes regarding allocations of rewards and penalties over time. Aggregating the two theories produces an ad hoc model of human nature with seven parameters or more. Preliminary data show that this increases our ability to predict behavior substantially. The research will further explore the predictive power of the model and relate the traits derived from personality and decision theory to their neural and genetic underpinnings.
In terms of broader impacts, this research will contribute to both our ability to predict individual behaviors in given contexts and tailor interventions to modify behaviors in circumstances were this is desirable.
I: Introduction The research project financed by the NSF has developed a theory and experimental tests of the role of personality in economic decision making, both as single agents and as players in a game. This research is part of a broader agenda trying to establish the contribution of cognitive and non-cognitive factors to social and economic success, beginning with academic success. It is by now well established that Intelligence and other cognitive abilities are strongly associated with doing well in social life and ultimate level of educational attainment. Recently, however, a convergence of findings across multiple programs of research has drawn attention to the role non-cognitive factors may play in educational outcomes. Perhaps most prominent among these is the re-analysis of the landmark Perry Preschool program by Heckman and colleagues, who reported that individuals who received the preschool intervention had higher levels of educational attainment, employment and marriage and lower levels of crime as adults than individuals who did not receive the intervention. The Perry program was not, however, associated with enduring increases in measured intelligence, suggesting that the long-term intervention effects may be due to non-cognitive as well as cognitive factors. Further support for the importance of non-cognitive factors comes from a growing body of research showing that personality factors are associated with academic and related outcomes. Much of this research has implicated conscientiousness as the personality factor most strongly associated with academic outcomes. II: Our research We have contributed significantly to this research, and providing it with the foundation on neuroeconomic analysis. As part of the project, we have collected data, imaging and behavioral, for approximately 300 subjects. For the same subject pool we have also collected saliva samples and we are now genotyping the sample. This is now a unique dataset, covering three main aspects of data analysis. This will provide the basis for setting up new methodologies integrating genetic analysis, the brain pathways, and the link to behavior. The first results are being found, and in the course of being published. One published result is significant: we have found a positive correlation between intelligence and volume of the caudate nucleus. This is an interesting result because it provides a potential explanation of the link between attitude to risk and response to rewards. We have also almost completed a paper based on the data gathered in the study to analyze the role of memory in decision making. In our experiment, two options are presented to the subjects in sequence, at the distance of 2 to 4 seconds. We have found in behavioral data that the second option is (everything else being equal) more likely to be chosen. We model this as the outcome of a process where the first option is evaluated in OFC, a working memory of the value is held in parietal cortex, and then fed to the OFC at the moment in which the second option is presented. The analysis of brain data confirms that an activation in parietal cortex supporting the working memory function. The project has developed a first integrated analysis of neuroeconomics and personality, and demonstrated the role of personality in economic decision making, and its pathways in the brain. We begin to see the foundation of the link between attitude to risk and discounting on the one hand and the individual characteristics measured by personality. Some of the links are even anatomical in nature: for instance we have found that the volume of the caudate nucleus is positively correlated with intelligence in a large (N=570) sample of subjects A particular role has been found in intelligence in strategic decision making. In recent research we have demonstrated that groups of people with higher intelligence have a higher rate of cooperation in the Repeated Prisoner's dilemma game. Interestingly, the two groups start at cooperation rates that are close, but have a divergent behavior in later stages. This indicates that intelligence modulates the learning process and the way they respond to features of the environment, rather than influencing their unconditional attitude to cooperation. An additional direction is now ben pursued, linking genetic analysis and imaging data in a massive multivariate analysis (massive because the number of genetic markers is in the order of 500 thousand, and the number of voxels is approximately 40 thousand). This research has fundamental implications for policy. As the current debate on the early childhood intervention shows, it is essential to understand how behavior in choices, like education, saving, and in general social behavior, and ultimately success in social life, is influenced by personality characteristics like, in the first place, intelligence and (in terms of the Big Five theory) Conscientiousness. Our findings on the role of intelligence are more likely to be source of discussion, but when properly evaluated they will offer guidance for suitable policy interventions.
