One of the primary reasons risk management decisions are difficult is because of uncertainty in estimates of the outcomes of proposed actions. This uncertainty has multiple sources and can refer to either the expected magnitude of a consequence or to its assessed probability. A key challenge facing decision makers is how to communicate effectively about uncertainty among the different participants involved in the risk decision process -- experts from government agencies or academia, industry staff and consultants, and members of the public. People from these different groups will typically hold different values, have different tolerances for risk, and have different levels of comfort with respect to numeric presentations of information. Although it is widely known that these differences can lead to substantial variations in how the same uncertainty presentation is understood, current practice generally reflects a largely ad hoc approach to the presentation of uncertainty, with each risk manager responsible for developing a presentation strategy. In response, this research project contributes to the development of broadly applicable guidelines for presenting uncertainty in ways that encourage understanding and minimize communication failures. The proposed work combines experimental studies, using both experts and laypersons as participants, with case studies that will assist decision makers in a variety of real-world settings.
If stakeholders engaged in risk management decisions are able to more fully understand the implications of outcome uncertainty and, as a result, select options that are more consistent with their own values, then the quality of citizen participation in important social debates should be improved. Across a range of case-study applications -ncluding national security, environmental management, and health contexts- trust in the role of credible technical analyses will be promoted. Results of this 3-year project will be disseminated broadly through presentations, trainings for risk managers and other citizens, teaching in university classes, media submissions (e.g., newspaper editorials), and articles published in leading professional journals.
