Elizabeth Boyle Hollie Nyseth Brehm University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
Genocide is not a random event but a process that unfolds systematically. Preliminary work and existing literature have suggested that genocide can be predicted and perhaps even one day ameliorated using a combination of sociological and criminological explanations. Yet, many questions remain, and this dissertation seeks to answer two of them: 1) What are the causes of genocide at societal, state, and international levels? 2) What accounts for temporal and regional variation during genocide? To assess what leads to genocide, the dissertation begins with a quantitative analysis of the preconditions of genocide in all countries over the last 50 years. Then, to analyze how genocides unfold, it turns to case studies of the genocides in Rwanda, Bosnia, and Sudan. Each case study includes quantitative analysis of genocidal violence over time and by region. To better understand reasons behind variation in violence, it also draws upon historical analysis and 20 interviews per case.
Recent works have suggested that sociology and criminology hold much promise for the study of genocide, though sociologists and criminologists have largely neglected the study of this crime of crimes. This dissertation draws upon these literatures to better understand two aspects of genocide?its causes and how it unfolds. Political scientists and historians have begun to address the causes of genocide over the last several decades, though the majority of research focuses on the intricacies of particular cases and the importance of political leaders in planning and implementing genocide. Such in-depth analyses are important, though few scholars have actually assessed the general factors that contribute to the occurrence of genocide. These may include factors beyond the roles played by individual leaders, including societal factors (such as societal diversity), state factors (such as the type of government), and international factors (such as engagement in the international system through trade or organizational membership), which have not been thoroughly studied in regard to genocide despite the growing interdependency of the international system. While these factors are considered in relation to the initial occurrence of genocide, this study also disaggregates the events of genocides and conceptualizes genocide as a process. Extant literature on the causes of genocide focuses on what leads to genocide; however, viewing genocide as an undifferentiated event misses the opportunity to truly understand the violence. Few studies have explored regional and temporal variation in genocide, and no studies have done this comparatively
Broader Impacts.
This dissertation will produce both quantitative and qualitative data that will be used to better understand genocide. Such research has the potential to inform policy makers, think tanks, and research centers around the world as they strive to create early warning systems for genocide. Understanding the process of genocide could also inform interventions in genocide by international actors as well as local organizations. Accordingly, the findings will be disseminated through publications and conference presentations at both local and international conferences. Notably, the co-PI has interned with the Rwandan Government Genocide Prevention Commission and a similar organization in Bosnia, and both organizations are interested in the results of the study. In addition, the co-PI has been in contact with Genocide Watch and several other nongovernmental organizations and will ensure that the findings from the research are disseminated.
The Project Although countries have continually vowed to prevent genocide and mass violence, pictures of piles of bodies, endless rows of faces behind barbed wire, and starving children in refugee camps fill news media around the world and remind us that genocides continue to occur with alarming frequency. This violence has often appeared to be incomprehensible, chaotic, or even psychopathic. Yet, like other social processes, genocide is structural and systematic. Although each genocide is unique, there are also discernible patterns among genocides, much like civil wars, hate crimes, or terrorism. To that end, this study seeks to understand the causes and processes of genocide. As such, it asks two key questions: 1) What are the causes of genocide at societal, state, and international levels? and 2) What accounts for temporal and regional variation in violence within genocides? To assess what leads to genocide, the co-PI conducted an analysis of the preconditions of genocide in all countries over the last 50 years. Specifically, she used quantitative models to examine the situations where genocide is more likely to occur and the factors that influence its occurrence, such as the type of government or history of colonialism. This was funded by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. The second part of the project looked at three specific genocides in more depth—the recent violence in Rwanda (1994), Bosnia (1992-1995), and the Darfur region of Sudan (2003). The co-PI focused both on the factors that led to genocide in each case and on what influenced community-level rates and onset of violence. In other words, she assessed why some communities saw thousands more deaths than others during the course of each genocide and why some genocidal violence started in certain parts of the country before others. To do this, the co-PI relied upon quantitative models to test how numerous factors—such as ethnic diversity, resource scarcity, divorce rates, unemployment levels, education levels, or the presence of certain armies—influence the onset and magnitude of genocidal violence within communities. She also conducted fieldwork and 113 interviews with survivors, scholars, and other witnesses of the violence. During the Tenure of the Award Prior to receiving this award, the co-PI conducted fieldwork and analysis on Rwanda. During the tenure of this award, the co-PI spent two months living in Bosnia-Herzegovina, where she interviewed 40 people about the genocide and traveled around the country to learn more about how the violence unfolded in different regions. She also obtained access to data on the number of people who were killed in each community, which the co-PI used to analyze the factors that influenced the rate of violence within communities as well as the onset of violence by community. The co-PI also traveled to Uganda to interview Darfuri refugees, as the ongoing violence in Darfur made it too dangerous for travel. Specifically, she interviewed 45 Darfuri refugees who were living in Kampala to learn more about the genocide. Beyond fieldwork and interviews, which involved working with a translator, the co-PI supervised two research assistants throughout this project. One research assistant helped the co-PI code hundreds of CIA documents about troop locations during the genocide in Bosnia, an important part of understanding how the violence unfolded. The other research assistant helped with interview transcription. Findings and Dissemination Overall, the co-PI found that the factors associated with regional and temporal differences in violence vary based on who the perpetrators are and how they are organized. In Rwanda, members of the community who were not part of previously organized formal groups participated in the violence. As such, criminology’s social disorganization theory—which argues that community cohesion influences crime rates—helps explain variation in this violence. In line with this theory, there was less violence in communities with higher marriage rates and higher employment levels. In Bosnia-Herzegovina and Darfur, however, previously organized armies and militias generally committed the violence. Accordingly, strategic concerns—like plans for land acquisition and the presence of other armies—dictated patterns. These findings were reported in the co-PI’s dissertation, which she defended in June 2014. They have also been presented at more than 5 national and international conferences and through numerous community-based talks, such as a talk given on Human Rights Day. Further, the co-PI co-organized a conference on genocide that took place at the University of Minnesota in April 2014, and results from the study were discussed during the conference. Currently, the co-PI is working on a book manuscript and on articles in order to disseminate the findings, which will also be disseminated to local and national organizations working to prevent and respond to genocide. Lastly, the study was profiled in Pacific Standard’s inaugural list of the "Top 30 Thinkers Under 30."
