Can states at risk of experiencing renewed civil conflict prevent insurgent violence through the use of different domestic security sector reforms? This project addresses a fundamental problem in accomplishing domestic security sector reforms and influencing civilian support for the state: too much of a militarized security sector signals the state's ability to protect, but also the state's ability to abuse, and too much of a demilitarized security sector signals the state's inability to abuse, but also its inability to protect. In order to understand civilian support for the government in the context of the problem, the project uses a novel field experiment in Liberia to determine whether security sector reforms that focus on protection (militarized reforms such as arming the security sector) or those that focus on rebuilding trust (demilitarized reforms such as including more women in the security sector) enhance perceptions and increase local support. The project builds on previous work with the Liberian National Police (LNP) and randomizes LNP outreach to eighty communities in rural Liberia. Communities are to receive visits by armed male, unarmed male, armed female, or unarmed female police officers. During the visits and after a period of two weeks, the co-PI will measure individual perceptions toward the LNP and government institutions and community support for the LNP.
The intellectual merit of the project is associated with enhancing understanding of how reforming domestic security forces leads to conflict prevention and state consolidation. While much attention has been placed on the prevention of civil war recurrence and the effects of counterinsurgency strategies on violence, little attention has been direct to understanding how domestic security sector reforms directly enhance civilian perceptions and increase civilian support for the government. The current literature finds that security sector reform plays a role in preventing civil war recurrence and that local support for the government helps counterinsurgency efforts, but this literature does not specify which security sector reforms help prevent insurgency nor directly links security sector reform to civilian support. This project develops an overarching theory of security sector reform, specifically developing hypotheses about which reforms may lead to more or less civilian support for the government given that some reforms may generate fear of government abuse, or fear of the government's inability to protect. The project also analyzes the importance of gender in security studies, an angle that is often neglected in the conflict literature. There have been no systematic empirical studies on how gender-balancing reforms in the security sector impact local perceptions and support. Moreover, the field experiment is the first to randomize actual deployment of government security forces and could serve as a model for future micro-level analysis on the impact of governmental reforms on civilian perceptions and behavior.
Understanding which types of domestic security sector reforms generate support for government security forces is very important for broader policy making. Currently, the LNP deploys groups of armed, male officers on patrols in rural counties, and anecdotal evidence suggests that these patrols create fear of abuse in the population. Thus, understanding which types of reforms actually mitigate fears and enhance perceptions and support becomes critical for policymaking in post-conflict states. More broadly, given that the United States and UN have spent billions of dollars restructuring various security forces, it is imperative to know which types of reforms are successful in preventing future conflict. This project will inform policy analysts about reforms that may generate local support and consequently help prevent the growth of insurgent groups. Additionally, the project may help to improve gender equality in post-conflict countries by demonstrating the potential benefits of gender balancing policies on enhancing security. Given that the co-PI has already worked on several projects with the LNP for over two years, and has established relationships with members of the UN Mission to Liberia (UNMIL), the results of the project will be disseminated throughout the UN, the LNP, and the broader Liberian public so that more resources can be devoted to policies that improve civilian support of the Liberian government.
