The project is designed to scientifically study public opinion in contested areas of the former Soviet Union to address important theoretical questions in international relations and comparative politics, and to inform US policymakers on matters crucial to US security interests.
Recent events in Ukraine -- violent protests in Kyiv, the collapse of the Yanukovych government, installation of an interim pro-Western regime, and the rapid annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia-- have altered Europe's political map and profoundly challenged the geopolitical settlement agreed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Speculation abounds that the strongly Russophone regions of eastern Ukraine (specifically, the large oblasts of Donetsk and Kharkiv) and nearby post-Soviet separatist "de facto" states (Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria) are potential future targets for Russian expansionism. To term all these places "pro-Russian" is an over-simplification. Russia's annexation of Crimea may have created what the Kremlin hopes are "new realities" on the ground but it is not clear how the new geopolitical context and its uncertainties are viewed by both residents in these de facto states and in regions of Ukraine traditionally held to be "pro-Russian". Documenting and analyzing these evolving attitudes in conflict regions is the project's research goal.
Intellectual Merit: Three important research questions about the international system have been thrown into sharp relief by recent events. The first concerns the geopolitical challenge to the legitimacy of the post-Cold War settlement in Europe. In the wake of a rupture from the 1970s agreement that post-war European boundaries should not be altered, are post-Soviet de facto states about to be "gathered up" by Russia? Second, contemporary geopolitical events are re-focusing attention on the crucial importance of ongoing intellectual debates about territory and sovereignty in international relations. Over twenty de facto states have been created in recent decades. The current political crisis in Ukraine and its attendant questions about the future territorial status of its eastern oblasts that are dominated by a Russified population offers an opportunity to examine a possible territorial modification through the views of the residents in these regions. A third broad research topic is, while Russia's actions may not enjoy legitimacy in the UN General Assembly, they appear to enjoy considerable popular support within Russia and Crimea. After working strenuously for two decades to establish "stateness", are residents of de facto states and similar minority regions willing to abandon their nominal state identity to acquire a new one? To answer these questions, the Principal Investigators, in collaboration with Russian colleagues, will conduct large representative public opinion surveys in five regions (three de facto states of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, and two oblasts, Donetsk and Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine) to document and analyze current attitudes in the wake of the Ukrainian government crisis and subsequent Crimea annexation.
Broader Impacts: Events over the first months of 2014 have shaken assumptions about Russia's adherence to post-Cold War agreements to respect the territorial integrity of post-Soviet states. The US focus is to ensure the continued transition to successful governance in Ukraine and support Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova in their efforts to reclaim control of territories. Post-Soviet de facto states are quite successful in promoting state identity and internal state legitimacy. Given this, it is not at all clear that communities in these territories have uniform aspirations for annexation by Russia, though prevalent attitudes are strongly pro-Russia. The project will provide critical information for US foreign policy by acquiring information about current conditions inside de facto states and nominally pro-Russian regions of Ukraine, their level of legitimacy with their own populations, the extent and nature of their contacts with Russia, the willingness of the populations to accept territorial and political changes, the relative level of inter-ethnic social distances, and the conditions of border interactions.
