This research focuses on the "active minority" of citizens who will participate in the presidential nomination and general election campaigns of 1988. The investigators are interested in the factors that explain participants' support for candidates as well as the relationship between their activity in the preconvention campaigns and their willingness to work for their party's nominee in the fall campaign. The design of the project specifically recognizes the dynamic character of the process and permits monitoring of changing attitudes and behavior throughout the campaign. Based on their prior research, the investigators will test an explanation of candidate support that includes activists' judgments about how likely each candidate is to win his or her party's nomination, the candidate's chances against the opposition party in the fall, the issue and ideological preferences of the activist, and the personal characteristics of the contenders. Assessing the relative importance of these factors is crucial to understanding the implications of nomination campaigns for the health of the American political parties. For example, activists who emphasize issues and ideology interests in choosing a candidate contribute to the divisiveness of the preconvention campaign and may be less likely to work for the party in the fall should their preferred candidate not receive the nomination. Activists more concerned with nominating a winner, in contrast, may be more likely to work in the fall campaign even if the party fails to nominate their preferred candidate. The research design involves surveys of activists in three states: Iowa, Michigan, and Virginia. These states were selected due to their diversity in political culture, and because precinct caucuses will be held in them at different times during the nomination campaign. Moreover, the investigators have data from these same states from surveys they conducted during the 1984 campaign. The investigators will draw comparisons with their results from 1984 as well as re-contacting the 1984 respondents in order to follow them through the 1988 campaign. The investigators will contact their 1984 samples of caucus-attenders three times during 1988: first in January, then in June after the primary season but before the summer conventions, and finally just after the November election. In order to facilitate comparisons with their 1984 data on caucus-attenders, they will also draw new samples of 1988 caucus-attenders in both parties in each state. These respondents will be contacted twice: once immediately after the caucuses in their state, and again following the fall election. Finally, the investigators will survey samples of state and local party leaders in the three states, who will be contacted at exactly the same times as the caucus attenders in their states. The goal is to collect data on those who are more or less permanently active in the state parties in order to assess the relationship between the state party organizations and the presidential selection process.
