This project seeks to improve understanding of Stalinist economic expansion by analyzing l928-l940 Soviet experience in a new way. It uses a multiperiod, multisectoral programming model to trace interactions within the economy and quantify the impact of major events (the initial overcommitment of resources, the collectivization of agriculture, world depression, and the drive for rearmament). Its data comes primarily from Soviet sources as reconstructed by Western scholars, whose separate studies are linked and bolstered by the model's accounting structure. A series of input-output tables provide a framework within which a sequential linear programming model generates a reference solution reflecting the economy's growth potential. Experiments with parameter changes permit analysis of numerous scenarios estimating the impacts of specific events throughout the economy. The project builds on over a decade of preparatory research by the principal investigator. Its evaluation of the results of Stalinist planning should be of interest not only to economists but also to political scientists, historians and others concerned with the process of economic development.
