This proposal outlines an ambitious application of decision analysis to an important national problem. The proposed research has two distinct parts: (1) to perform a decision analysis of the management of commercial nuclear waste, one alternative being a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada; and (2) to conduct research on methodological issues inherent in considering strategic governmental decisions, such as siting nuclear waste repositories. The combination of these two tasks allows the former to be used as a case study for the latter. In principle, the application of decision analysis could make significant contributions to public decision making. But in practice, this approach rarely is applied to significant problems. Although the obstacles to implementation are considerable, the past work of the principal investigators demonstrate that the task is not impossible. Their prior work on the nuclear waste repository is a classic example of good decision analysis. Moreover, this earlier work has had an impact, not only in the science policy community, but also on some participants in the political process. The investigators' record of accomplishments in previous NSF funded research is exceptional. Not only have they produced excellent academic research, they have demonstrated an ability to address important public policy issues in a way that enhances the level of public debate. In all, the potential payoff from this project is very high.
