A theory of judgmental illusions proposed by the investigator in his recent book, "Patterns, Thinking, and Cognition," will be tested experimentally. The theory claims that people evaluate decision situations by calling to mind familiar scenarios. Such scenarios are often stored in related pairs in a person's memory. The theory claims that many judgmental errors occur when situational cues summon the inappropriate scenario from the relevant pair. A series of experiments will be conducted to manipulate the salience of specific scenarios. This work will add to our understanding of the way people make decisions, and suggest ways of improving decision making by generating clues for how people can select the most appropriate scenario for the current problem situation.
