This is a proposal to study changes in household and families in Latin America during the period 1970-1985. The project will first describe the nature of changes in household and family configuration in 14 countries and examine whether these changes can be accounted for by changes in fertility, nuptiality, mortality, and migration, or whether changes in preferences for living in certain types of households, such as female headed households, also is a source of change. The second goal of the project is to compare household changes between different socio-economic strata and between countries in order to test hypotheses about the effects of social and economic changes as the societal level on changes in household structures. Finally, the project will project household structure in these Latin American countries for the period 1995-2050 to assess the changing importance of demographic components. Particular attention will be paid to the living arrangements of the elderly and the social demands they entail. The project will use census data for the early 1970s and for the 1980s. These data will be analyzed by a combination of methods and techniques including multivariate models to quantify the contribution of changes in composition and changes in effects, generalized stable population models to obtain information about intercensal flows, and modified macro and micro simulation models to assess the magnitude of he contribution of demographic factors and of non- demographic characteristics. This study will provide a much needed study of changes in households and families in Latin America. The study will provide very valuable descriptive information, but it will also broaden the current theoretical debate about the causes of change in families and households which has been based largely on research done in North America and Europe. The study will also contribute to the development of simulation models for the projection of changes in household structure.
