9320554 Wang Early studies on arms transfers and African coups have not considered the interaction between the two areas. While arms transfers have largely been treated as a matter of international affairs, military intervention in Africa is usually seen as resulting from domestic factors. There exist, however, both empirical evidence and theoretical justification for the proposition that international arms shipments and African coups d'etat are related. This investigation assesses the political effects of arms transfers on the occurrence of coups in Africa. Utilizing theories of arms transfers and of the coup d'etat, a causal model is constructed to evaluate the political consequences of international arms shipments. An event count analysis in conjunction with conventional regression techniques is employed for statistical estimation of the effects of arms transfers on African coups. The proposed research is significant in three aspects. First, it is significant in its theoretical contribution. Since previous studies have neglected exploring the linkages between African coups and arms transfers, this investigation fills this theoretical gap. Second, this research is important in its methodological contribution as an event count analysis will be employed for statistical estimation. This is an appropriate techniques for coups analysis but has not been adopted by any prior investigation. Third, this investigation will expand the existing data base on African coups, which, in itself, will be a contribution to the discipline and invite replications of similar research. ***
